AI Commitments Monitor: $2.6 Trillion Signed, Not Yet Delivered
Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon have signed $2,607B of AI infrastructure commitments that have not yet been delivered: leases signed on buildings not yet handed over, plus contracts to buy chips, power and capacity at stated minimums. That figure is those two disclosed quantities added together, as of 2026-07-31. It is not debt. It is not the same as the all-in total below, which adds borrowings and leases already on the balance sheet.
The demand-side commitments that back compute credit, tracked from the SEC filings of the five largest AI buyers. Two footnote quantities, in plain terms rent (leases signed on data centers still under construction) and bills (contracts to buy chips, power, and capacity at stated minimums), plus the revenue backlog on the other side of the same contracts, and the support instruments written around them. Every figure carries its window and traces to an accession number. As of 2026-07-31. Next expected update: Oracle 10-Q FY27 Q1 (quarter ending August 31, 2026), expected mid-September 2026.
§ The monitor
| Company | Leases not yet commenced | Purchase & other commitments | All-in obligations | Revenue backlog (RPO) | Support instruments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta 10-Q Q2 2026 (period 2026-06-30), acc 0001628280-26-050705 | $279B Jun-26 +96.1 vs Mar-26 ($182.9B) data centers, colocations, network infrastructure; commencing 2026–2036, terms >1 to 30 yrs; separately, ~$68B of further data-center leases signed Jul-26 (subsequent event), commencing 2027–28, terms 18–20 yrs — not in the quarter-end figure | $349.3B Jun-26 +111.6 vs Mar-26 ($237.7B) non-cancelable; ~$53.5B due 2026, ~$81.7B due 2027; excludes $14.72B contingent cloud capacity; $10.8B of money-market funds escrowed against multi-year infrastructure purchase agreements (released 2028–30) | $741B Jun-26 debt = $84.0B face (carrying $83.66B); balance-sheet operating lease liabilities $28.65B; finance-lease liabilities not disclosed in the Q2 10-Q (fin-lease ROU assets $9.47B) — all-in stack understated by that amount | — no compute revenue backlog | $28B Jun-26 RVG threshold, unconsolidated Louisiana venture (no liability recorded — payments 'not probable'; max exposure $46.0B); El Paso exclusivity agreement (subsequent event) adds RVG max ~$13B upon closing, expected Q3-26 |
| Alphabet 10-Q Q2 2026 (period 2026-06-30), acc 0001652044-26-000071 | $85.2B Jun-26 +9.6 vs Mar-26 ($75.6B) commencing 2026–2031, terms 1–26 yrs; separately, a short-term lease signed Jun-26 with a non-cancelable commitment of ~$5.8B, commencing Q3-26 | $811B Jun-26 +478.6 vs Mar-26 ($332.4B) MD&A total incl. open purchase orders; $200.7B short-term; note-level fixed/guaranteed supply+energy+content = $707.0B — supply agreements generally fulfilled through 2030, energy take-or-pay obligations through 2054 | $1,018B Jun-26 backlog ÷ all-in: 0.51× debt = $101.09B total face incl current portion; op leases $18.04B + fin leases $2.59B | $519.5B Jun-26 +51.9 vs Mar-26 ($467.6B) $513.9B Google Cloud; definition includes ≤1-yr contracts since Q1-26; 'limited number' of TPU-system supply agreements began recognizing revenue in Q2-26, significant majority expected in 2027 | $43.8B Jun-26 data-center backstops as credit derivatives, notional (was $28.4B Mar-26, $16.9B Dec-25, $0 Dec-24); fair-value liability $815M vs $69M Dec-25; further ~$24.1B of backstops agreed, terms pending; separately $7.6B energy financial guarantees (terms through Sep-26) and a $20.0B milestone-contingent funding commitment to an unnamed private company, booked as an equity derivative |
| Microsoft 10-K FY2026 (period 2026-06-30), acc 0001193125-26-323660 | $329.1B Jun-26 +132.5 vs Mar-26 ($196.6B) primarily datacenters; commencing FY2027–FY2033, terms 1–20 yrs; 74% of the $443.5B total lease-commitment line in the MD&A table | $194.1B Jun-26 +52.0 vs Jun-25 ($142.1B) $194.06B purchase commitments (datacenter take-or-pay + open POs; $169.0B due FY27). Separately disclosed: $34.57B construction commitments — excluded from the normalized columns because only Microsoft discloses construction as its own line; the prior-year row ($142.05B) included it, so the delta is mixed-basis. The full MD&A contractual-obligations table (leases $443.5B + purchase + construction + debt principal $46.1B + interest $25.6B) totals $743.8B | $658B Jun-26 backlog ÷ all-in: 1.03× debt = $46.14B total face value; op leases $21.93B + fin leases $66.59B | $684B Jun-26 +51.0 vs Mar-26 ($633B) $678B commercial (+84% y/y), weighted-avg duration ~2.3 yrs, ~30% recognized within 12 mo; backlog ÷ all-in ratio uses the commercial figure (house basis) | none disclosed as a separate category |
| Oracle 10-K FY2026 (period 2026-05-31), acc 0001193125-26-277521 | $260B May-26 +255.9 vs May-22 ($4.1B) terms 15–19 yrs, commencing FY27–FY29; includes a lease with $3.3B guarantee of the lessor's borrowing (matures Sep-26) | $13.3B May-26 unconditional, primarily data-center power; +$19B cloud-infrastructure purchase commitments signed after year-end (subsequent event) | $441B May-26 backlog ÷ all-in: 1.45× debt = $130.11B total senior notes and other borrowings (pre-adjustment; incl term loan $5.14B + CP $1.47B); op leases $30.19B + fin leases $7.70B | $638B May-26 +500.0 vs May-25 ($138B) ~12% expected to convert to revenue within 12 months; increase attributed to 'certain significant cloud contracts,' unnamed | $3.3B May-26 guarantee of a lessor's borrowing within the lease pipeline |
| Amazon 10-Q Q2 2026 (period 2026-06-30), acc 0001018724-26-000026 | $137.2B Jun-26 +30.9 vs Mar-26 ($106.4B) $93.5B of the undiscounted total falls due after 2030 | $148.4B Jun-26 +25.9 vs Mar-26 ($122.6B) $130.07B unconditional purchase obligations (energy, digital media content, property & equipment, software) + $18.37B other commitments | $528B Jun-26 backlog ÷ all-in: 0.94× debt = $133.0B total face incl current portion (May-26 CHF ~$3.5B + Jun-26 CAD ~$9.9B issuances); a further $25.0B of USD notes issued Jul-26 (subsequent event, not in the quarter-end face total); op leases $96.32B + fin leases $13.45B | $496B Jun-26 +132.0 vs Mar-26 ($364B) AWS, contracts >1 yr, weighted-avg life 6.4 yrs (5.5 at Mar-26); Q2 10-Q discloses an expansion of the Anthropic collaboration announced in the quarter of more than $100B over 10 yrs (Q1: OpenAI arrangement expanded $100B to $138B) — both including obligations tied to the performance of AWS chips | none disclosed as backstop/guarantee; related: $20B milestone-linked Anthropic financing facility; OpenAI equity commitment fully funded (remaining $21.3B Series C invested Jul-26, subsequent event); $10.0B invested in Anthropic nonvoting preferred in Q2 |
$B, undiscounted, as disclosed. Windows differ where issuers' fiscal calendars and disclosure practices differ and are labeled on every cell. Deltas are shown only against the same issuer's prior disclosure of the same quantity. Oracle's prior lease figure is fiscal 2022, the earliest comparable disclosure. All-in obligations = the two forward columns plus debt at face value and balance-sheet lease liabilities (operating + finance), each from the same issuer's cited filings. It is a total fixed-claims stack built only from components all five issuers disclose, computed by us from the disclosed figures. Construction commitments, disclosed only by Microsoft, are excluded from these columns. The backlog ÷ all-in ratio is a conservative screen, not a coverage finding: RPO is contracted revenue only, while debt and commenced leases are also serviced by revenue no backlog captures (advertising, retail, licenses). Support instruments are contingent and are in no total.
§ What these quantities are
Leases signed but not yet commenced are rental agreements on facilities, overwhelmingly data centers, that have not been delivered. Nothing appears on the balance sheet until the landlord hands over the building. At commencement, a lease liability and right-of-use asset are recognized. The footnote is therefore a forward calendar of balance-sheet lease liabilities, with terms disclosed as long as 30 years. Purchase and other commitments are contracts to buy goods and services (cloud capacity, chips and servers, power), reported at the non-cancelable portion or contractual minimum, in the issuers' own language: "non-cancelable," "take-or-pay," "unconditional… enforceable and legally binding." Remaining performance obligations are the same class of contract seen from the seller's side: contracted future revenue not yet recognized. Support instruments are credit support written around other parties' financings: payment backstops (Alphabet accounts for these as credit derivatives at fair value), residual value guarantees, and guarantees of lessors' borrowings.
Why a compute-credit record tracks them: these commitments are the collateral of the offtake-backed lane of the compute credit tracker. A compute provider's contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer are that customer's purchase commitment seen from the other end, and the market prices their quality. The launch analysis, with the full decomposition, conditionality language, and counterparty detail, is Breaking Down Big Tech's $1.65 Trillion "Hidden Debt". On the support-instruments column specifically, see How Alphabet Pays to Obtain Compute Capacity at Speed: the backstop book and its booked cost per $100, which this monitor updates with each Alphabet 10-Q.
Sources: latest and prior filings per issuer as listed in each row, verified against the documents on EDGAR. This page is updated within days of each new 10-Q/10-K from the covered issuers. Figures are as-disclosed and are not restated between filings. Nothing here is a solvency opinion, a forecast, or investment advice.
§ Implied committed rates
Where a publicly disclosed multi-year compute deal states enough (dollars, term, and quantity), CCIR backs out the implied unit rate. Every figure is implied, computed by CCIR from the disclosed figures, and graded by disclosure quality. None is an observed price. These rows are not part of any CCIR benchmark series. The methodology and per-deal detail are in the research note Implied Committed Rates. This table updates as deals publish.
Assumptions, permanent: ratable spend across the disclosed term; 100% of contracted hours billed; all disclosed dollars treated as compute; constant fleet; 8,760 hr/yr. Every assumption biases the implied rate downward: all figures are floors on blended committed rates, not observed prices. Grades: A = dollars, term, and units all company-disclosed; B = one input from attributed press. Grade-C rows (talks-stage or heavy estimation) do not publish. $/GPU-hr and $/MW-month rows are never blended. Chip column = the generation as the parties disclosed it. Where unspecified, the rate is fleet-blended. No performance adjustment across generations: rates on different chips are different products, not comparable prices. This table carries $/GPU-hr rows only, newest first; megawatt-basis reads (IREN's grade-A basis, Stargate) live in the research note.
| Deal | Chip | Disclosed | Implied rate | Grade | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic–xAI (SpaceX) | unspecified | $1.25B/mo through May 2029 · ~325,000 NVIDIA GPUs · 90-day outs after initial 3 mo | $5.27/GPU-hr | A | Jun-26 |
| Microsoft–IREN | GB300 | $9.7B · 5 yr · 200MW critical IT load | ~$2.2/GPU-hr (CCIR density estimate) | A (MW) | Nov-25 |
| OpenAI–AWS | GB200/GB300 | $38B · 7 yr · "hundreds of thousands" of GPUs + CPUs | $1.24–3.10/GPU-hr (band) | B | Nov-25 |
| Microsoft–Nscale/Aker (Narvik) | GB300 | $6.2B · 5 yr · ~52,000 GPUs | $2.72/GPU-hr | A | Sep-25 |
| Microsoft–Nebius | GB300 (press) | $17.4B (up to $19.4B) · 5 yr · ">100k" GPUs per press | $3.97/GPU-hr | B | Sep-25 |
Not computable, no rate published: Meta–CoreWeave (~$35.2B total, no units disclosed), OpenAI–CoreWeave (~$22.4B, no units), Anthropic–Microsoft Azure ($30B, no term; the "up to 1GW" is a separate additional commitment and is not a valid denominator). Sources and per-row caveats in the research note.